Looking through a couple of posts on young rationalists, it occurred to me to ask the question, how many murderers have a loving relationship with non-murderer parents?
Is there a way to get these kinds of statistics? Is there a way to filter them for accuracy? Accuracy both of 'loving relationship' and of 'guilty of murder' (i.e. plea bargains, false charges, etc.)
I started to write: The probabilities in my priors are so low that I don't expect any update to occur, even if you could accurately measure. Then I thought: Wait, that's what 'prior' means: of course I don't expect any update to occur! Rationality is hard.
So instead, I'll phrase my confusion this way: I have a hard time stating a belief for which even a surprising result to this measurement would matter. There are so many other reasons to recommend being raised by loving parents that "increased likelihood of murder from near-zero to still-near-zer...
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