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JoshuaZ comments on Open Thread June 2010, Part 3 - Less Wrong
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Oh. I see. Yes, they aren't taking into account the accuracy estimations at all. Your criticism seems correct. Your complaints about the other aspects seem accurate also.
Huh. This is disturbing; most of the Freakonomics blog entries I've read have good analysis of data. It looks like this one really screwed the pooch. I have to wonder if others they've done have similar problems that I haven't noticed.
Yeah, I am a fan of Freakonomics generally too. I will write to them, I think. Will let you know how it goes. I want to confirm I am right about the probability stuff though, I still have a niggling doubt that I've just misunderstood something. But I think they are definitely wrong about the forecast updating.