simplicio comments on Book Club Update and Chapter 1 - Less Wrong

15 Post author: Morendil 15 June 2010 12:30AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (79)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: simplicio 16 June 2010 06:38:10PM 1 point [-]
  • Compare Jaynes' framing of probability theory with your previous conceptions of "probability". What are the differences?

Probability is a 1-to-1 mapping of plausibilities onto real numbers, as opposed to an objective thing waiting to be discovered, mind-independently.

  • What do you make of Jaynes' observation that plausible inference is concerned with logical connections, and must be carefully distinguished from physical causation?

It seems quite reasonable. His storm cloud analogy works quite well.

I was particularly impressed with the "Comments" section after the chapter.