Morendil comments on Book Club Update and Chapter 1 - Less Wrong
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I think I was unclear. Here's what I mean:
Suppose our robot takes these two propositions:
A = "It's going to rain tonight in Michigan." B = "England will win the World Cup."
And suppose it thinks that the plausibility of A is 40, and the plausibility of B is 25.
As far as our robot knows, these propositions are not related. That is, in Jaynes' notation (I'll use a bang for "not,") (A|B) = (A|!B) = 40, and (B|A) = (B|!A) = 25. Is that correct?
Now suppose that the plausibility of A jumps to 80, because it's looking very cloudy this afternoon. I suggest that the plausibility of B should remain unchanged. I'm not sure whether the current set of rules is sufficient to ensure that, although I suspect it is. I think it might be impossible to come up with a consistent system breaking this rule that still obeys the (3c) "consistency over equivalent problems" rule.
If you know from the outset that these propositions are unrelated, you already know something quite important about the logical structure of the world that these propositions describe.
Jaynes comes back to this point over and over again, and it's also a major theme of the early chapters in Pearl's Causality:
-- Pearl, Causality p. 25