Hmmm, probability distribution; at what level of knowledge?

I guess I should assume you mean at what is currently considered the maximum level of knowledge?

In which case, I suspect that'd be a small level of divergence. But, maybe not negligible. I'm not sure, my knowledge of how quantum effects effect macroscopic reality is rather small.

Or is it probability based on my knowledge? In which case it's a huge divergence, and I'd very much appreciate it.

Before deciding how much I value it, I'd like to see an illustration example, if possible. Perhaps take Einstein as an example: if he had been copied at age 12, what is an average level of divergence?