Vladimir_Nesov comments on Open Thread: July 2010 - Less Wrong

6 Post author: komponisto 01 July 2010 09:20PM

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Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 02 July 2010 12:08:46PM 3 points [-]

If you think all possible worlds exist, then you should expect our small bubble of ordered existence to erupt into chaos any day now

Not if you interpret your preference about those worlds as assigning most of them low probability, so that only the ordered ones matter.

Comment author: Jordan 04 July 2010 07:56:36AM 0 points [-]

I don't follow. Many low probability and unordered worlds are highly preferable. Conversely, many high probability worlds are not. I don't see a correlation.

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 04 July 2010 08:06:28AM *  0 points [-]

It's a simplification. If preference satisfies expected utility axioms, it can be decomposed on probability and utility, and in this sense probability is a component of preference and shows how much you care about a given possibility. This doesn't mean that utility is high on those possibilities as well, or that the possibilities with high utility will have high probability. See my old post for more on this.

Comment deleted 05 July 2010 07:49:25PM *  [-]
Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 05 July 2010 08:25:28PM *  1 point [-]

I understand this move but I don't like it. I think that in the fullness of time, we'll see that probability is not a kind of preference, and there is a "fact of the matter" about the effects that actions have, i.e. that reality is objective not subjective.

I think that probability is a tool for preference, but I also think that there is a fact of the matter about the effects of actions, and that reality of that effect is objective. This effect is at the level of the sample space (based on all mathematical structures maybe) though, of "brittle math", while the ways you measure the "probability" of a given (objective) event depend on what preference (subjective goals) you are trying to optimize for.

Comment author: cousin_it 02 July 2010 02:21:31PM *  0 points [-]

To rephrase, "unless you interpret your preference as denying the multiverse hypothesis" :-)

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 02 July 2010 04:41:04PM 1 point [-]

You don't have to assign exactly no value to anything, which makes all structures relevant (to some extent).