utilitymonster comments on Open Thread: July 2010 - Less Wrong
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Not quite. He was selected to meet someone like Bob, in the sense that whoever the messenger was, he'd have seen 25/100 big. He didn't know he'd meet Bob. But he regards the identity of the messenger as irrelevant.
You can bring out the difference by considering a variant of the case in which both Al and Bob hear about Charlie's plan in advance. (In this variant, the first to see 25/100 big will visit Al.)
What is the relevance of the fact that they observed highly improbable event?