Kingreaper comments on Open Thread: July 2010 - Less Wrong

6 Post author: komponisto 01 July 2010 09:20PM

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Comment author: Kingreaper 05 July 2010 02:16:34PM *  1 point [-]

Yes, it should, if it is known that Charlie hasn't previously "selected" any other people who got precisely 25.

The probability of being selected (taken before you have found any fish) p[chosen] is approximately equal regardless of whether there are 25% or 75% big fish.

And the probability of you being selected if you didn't find 25 p[chosen|not25] is zero

Therefore, the probability of you being selected, given as you have found 25 big fish p[chosen|found25] is approximately equal to p[chosen]/p[found25]

The information of the fact you've been chosen directly cancels out the information from the fact you found 25 big fish.