SarahC comments on Open Thread: July 2010 - Less Wrong
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That Virginia Postrel article was interesting.
I was wondering why more reflective people were both more patient and less risk-averse -- she doesn't make this speculation, but it occurs to me that non-reflective people don't trust themselves and don't trust the future. If you aren't good at math and you know it, you won't take a gamble, because you know that good gamblers have to be clever. If you aren't good at predicting the future, you won't feel safe waiting for money to arrive later. Tomorrow the gods might send you an earthquake.
Risk aversion and time preference are both sensible adaptations for people who know they're not clever. People who are good at math and science don't retain such protections because they can estimate probabilities, and because their world appears intelligible and predictable.
Um, that should make them more risk-averse, shouldn't it? Or do you mean reflective people don't trust themselves or the future?
oops. Reflective people are LESS risk averse. Corrected above.
That's even more confusing. I would expect a reflective person to be more self-doubtful and more risk-averse than a non-reflective person, all else being equal. But perhaps a different definition of "reflective" is involved here.
Possibly. A reflective person can use expected-utility to make choices that regular people would simply categorically avoid. (One might say in game-theoretic terms that a rational player can use mixed strategies, but irrational ones cannot and so can do worse. But that's probably pushing it too far.)
I recall reading one anecdote on an economics blog. The economist lived in an apartment and the nearest parking for his car was quite a ways away. There were tickets for parking on the street. He figured out the likelihood of being ticketed & the fine, and compared its expected disutility against the expected disutility of walking all the way to safe parking and back. It came out in favor of just eating the occasional ticket. His wife was horrified at him deliberately risking the fines.
Isn't this a case of rational reflection leading to an acceptance of risk which his less-reflective wife was averse to?
In a serendipitous and quite germane piece of research, Marginal Revolution links to a study on IQ and risk-aversion:
I don't believe the article says "reflective":
The problem with the temperament checks in the last two paragraphs is that they're still testing roughly the same thing that's tested earlier on-- competence at word problems.
And possibly interest in word problems-- I know I've seen versions of the three problems before. I wouldn't be going at them completely cold, but I wouldn't have noticed and remembered having seen them decades ago if word problems weren't part of my mental univers.
Somewhat offtopic:
I recall reading a study once that used a test which I am almost certain was this one to try to answer the cause/correlation question of whether philosophical training/credentials improved one's critical thinking or whether those who undertook philosophy already had good critical thinking skills; when I recently tried to re-find it for some point or other, I was unable to. If anyone also remembers this study, I'd appreciate any pointers.
(About all I can remember about it was that it concluded, after using Bayesian networks, that training probably caused the improvements and didn't just correlate.)
They are more risk-averse - that was a typo.