You mentioned that you had better explanations for some ch 2 material, still planning to post?
Right now I'm leaning against. It is a bigger job than I want to attempt for my posting debut. Sorry. Maybe someday.
But the basic idea was mentioned in this comment and there are links to some follow-up material in some of the comments. It is not that big a deal, but it seems to me that everything becomes a little more intuitive when you are adding and subtracting "surprisals" rather than multiplying and dividing probabilities.
Previously: Book Club introductory post - Chapter 1 - Chapter 2
We will shortly move on to Chapter 3 (I have to post this today owing to vacation - see below). I have updated the previous post with a summary of chapter 2, with links to the discussion as appropriate. But first, a few announcements.
How to participate
This is both for people who have previously registered interest, as well as newcomers. This spreadsheet is our best attempt at coordinating 90+ Less Wrong readers interested in participating in "earnest study of the great literature in our area of interest".
If you are still participating, please let the group know - all you have to do is fill in the "Active (Chapter)" column. Write in an "X" if you are checked out, or the number of the chapter you are currently reading. This will let us measure attrition, as well as adapt the pace if necessary. If you would like to join, please add yourself to the spreadsheet. If you would like to participate in live chat about the material, please indicate your time zone and preferred meeting time. As always, your feedback on the process itself is more than welcome.
Refer to the Chapter 1 post for more details on how to participate and meeting schedules.
Facilitator wanted
I'm taking off on vacation today until the end of the month. I'd appreciate if someone wanted to step into the facilitator's shoes, as I will not be able to perform these duties in a timely manner for at least the next two weeks.
Chapter 3: Elementary Sampling Theory
Having derived the sum and product rules, Jaynes starts us in on a mainstay of probability theory, urn problems.
Readings for the week of 19/07: Sampling Without Replacement - Logic versus Propensity. Exercises: 3.1
Discussion starts here.