utilitymonster comments on Open Thread, August 2010 - Less Wrong

4 Post author: NancyLebovitz 01 August 2010 01:27PM

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Comment author: utilitymonster 03 August 2010 07:09:27PM *  5 points [-]

If you want to eliminate hindsight bias, write down some reasons that you think justify your judgment.

Those who consider the likelihood of an event after it has occurred exaggerate their likelihood of having been able to predict that event in advance. We attempted to eliminate this hindsight bias among 194 neuropsychologists. Foresight subjects read a case history and were asked to estimate the probability of three different diagnoses. Subjects in each of the three hindsight groups were told that one of the three diagnoses was correct and were asked to state what probability they would have assigned to each diagnosis if they were making the original diagnosis. Foresight-reasons and hindsight-reasons subjects performed the same task as their foresight and hindsight counterparts, except they had to list one reason why each of the possible diagnoses might be correct. The frequency of subjects succumbing to the hindsight bias was lower in the hindsight-reasons groups than in the hindsight groups not asked to list reasons.

ARKES, H.R., et al., 1988. Eliminating the hindsight bias. Journal of applied psychology.

Comment author: gwern 08 August 2010 12:52:49PM 0 points [-]

Ought to be available at: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/5317066/Arkes%20et%20al--Eliminating%20the%20Hindsight%20Bias.pdf

(If this link doesn't work, let me know.)

Comment author: gwern 05 August 2010 10:02:43AM 0 points [-]

Link?

Comment author: utilitymonster 05 August 2010 12:31:05PM 0 points [-]
Comment author: gwern 05 August 2010 12:53:29PM 0 points [-]

I meant 'link to full text please', unless I'm missing something somewhere on that page.

Comment author: utilitymonster 05 August 2010 01:41:17PM 0 points [-]

Don't have. I can e-mail a copy if you want (got it through university's subscription).

Comment author: gwern 05 August 2010 02:17:39PM 0 points [-]

Alright, email it to me at gwern0 at gmail.com, and I'll host it somewhere for everyone. Maybe Dropbox.