SilasBarta comments on Open Thread, August 2010 - Less Wrong

4 Post author: NancyLebovitz 01 August 2010 01:27PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (676)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: SilasBarta 08 August 2010 03:00:39AM *  1 point [-]

I disagree with your analysis, but the details of why I disagree would be spoilers.

But I can only make inferences on what you've told me. If there's a factor that throws off the general inferences you can make from a salesman's clientele, you can't fault me for not using it. It's like you're trying to say:

"This dude was born in the US. He's 50 years old. Can he speak English?" -> Yeah, probably. -> "Haha! No, he can't! I didn't tell you he was abducted to Cambodia as an infant and grew up there!"

Anyway, the next step is to estimate what fraction of salesman with the same clientele composition have not had their clients die and see how atypical he is. Plus, his sales record would have to start from early in his career, or else his clients fall mostly within recent sales, a time span in which people normally don't die anyway.

Comment author: PeerInfinity 08 August 2010 03:16:16AM 0 points [-]

I thought I provided enough information, but I apologise if I didn't.

I posted an rot13'd version of my answer, which also explains why I disagreed with your answer.

sorry if the rot13ing is pointlessly annoying.