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RobinZ comments on Open Thread, August 2010 - Less Wrong
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It's an interesting analysis - have you confirmed the appearance of that distribution with real-world data? I suppose you'd need a substantial body of factual claims about which statistical information is available...
Thanks. I of course have no data, although I think there are lots of surveys done about weird things people believe. But even if this is the correct distribution, I think it would be difficult to fit data to it, because I would guess/worry that the constants K and c would depend on the nature of the claim. (c is so far just an artifact of the ansatz. K is something like P(Y(1)|Y(0)). Different for bigfoot than for Christianity.) Do you have any ideas?