gwern comments on Open Thread, August 2010 - Less Wrong

4 Post author: NancyLebovitz 01 August 2010 01:27PM

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Comment author: gwern 10 September 2010 09:32:05PM 1 point [-]

And thoughtful respected participant Cousin It probably misapplied the anthropic principle in the first paragraph of this comment.

It has been a while since I skimmed "Anthropic Shadow", but IIRC a key point or assumption in their formula was that the more recent a risk would have occurred or not, the less likely 'we' are to have observed the risk occurring, because more recently = less time for observers to recover from the existential risk or fresh observers to have evolved. This suggests a weak version: the longer we exist, the fewer risks' absence we need to appeal to an observer-based principle.

(But thinking about it, maybe the right version is the exact opposite. It's hard to think about this sort of thing.)