dv82matt comments on Open Thread, August 2010-- part 2 - Less Wrong

3 Post author: NancyLebovitz 09 August 2010 11:18PM

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Comment author: dv82matt 21 August 2010 07:04:06AM *  0 points [-]

You may have misunderstood what is meant by "smart predictor".

The wiki entry does not say how Omega makes the prediction. Omega may be intelligent enough to be a smart predictor but Omega is also intelligent enough to be a dumb predictor. What matters is the method that Omega uses to generate the prediction. And whether the method of prediction causally connects Omega’s prediction back to the initial conditions that causally determine your choice.

Furthermore a significant part of the essay explains in detail why many of the assumptions associated with Omega are problematic.

Edited to add that on rereading I can see how the bit where I say, "It doesn’t state whether Omega is sufficiently smart." is a bit misleading. It should be read as a statement about the method of making the prediction not about Omega's intelligence.