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nhamann comments on Open Thread, August 2010-- part 2 - Less Wrong
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I don't understand what the part about "fallible" and "infallible" agents is supposed to mean. If there is an "infallible" agent that makes the correct prediction 60% of the time and a "fallible" agent that makes the correct prediction 60% of the time, in what way should one anticipate them to behave differently?
It is intended to illustrate that for a given level of certainty one boxing has greater expected utility with an infallible agent than it does with a fallible agent.
As for different behaviors, I suppose one might suspect the fallible agent of using statistical methods and lumping you into a reference class to make its prediction. One could be much more certain that the infallible agent’s prediction is based on what you specifically would choose.