I'd look at it the other way: I'd take it as practically certain that any superintelligence built without explicit regard to Friendliness will be unFriendly, and ask what the probability is that through sufficiently slow growth in intelligence and other mere safeguards, we manage to survive building it.

My best hope currently rests on the AGI problem being hard enough that we get uploads first.

(This is essentially the Open Thread about everything Eliezer or SIAI have ever said now, right?)