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timtyler comments on Should I believe what the SIAI claims? - Less Wrong
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Re: "AGI will be developed over the next 100 years"
I list various estimates from those interested enough in the issue to bother giving probabality density functions at the bottom of:
http://alife.co.uk/essays/how_long_before_superintelligence/
Thanks, I'll check this out when I get a chance. I don't know whether I'll agree with your conclusions, but it looks like you've at least attempted to answer one of my main questions concerning the feasibility of SIAI's approach.
Those surveys suffer from selection bias. Nick Bostrom is going to try to get a similar survey instrument administered to a less-selected AI audience. There was also a poll at the AI@50 conference.
http://www.engagingexperience.com/2006/07/ai50_first_poll.html
If the raw data was ever published, that might be of some interest.
Any chance of piggybacking questions relevant to Maes-Garreau on that survey? As you point out on that page, better stats are badly needed.
And indeed, I suggested to SIAI folk that all public record predictions of AI timelines be collected for that purpose, and such a project is underway.
Hm, I had not heard about that. SIAI doesn't seem to do a very good job of publicizing its projects or perhaps doesn't do a good job of finishing and releasing them.
It just started this month, at the same time as Summit preparation.