timtyler comments on Existential Risk and Public Relations - Less Wrong

36 Post author: multifoliaterose 15 August 2010 07:16AM

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Comment author: timtyler 15 August 2010 02:23:40PM *  0 points [-]

That claims that "that the lifetime risk of dying from an asteroid strike is about the same as the risk of dying in a commercial airplane crash".

It cites:

Impacts on the Earth by asteroids and comets: assessing the hazard:

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v367/n6458/abs/367033a0.html

I am very sceptical about that being true for those alive now:

We have been looking for things that might hit us for a long while now - and we can see much more clearly what the chances are for that period than by looking at the historical record. Also, that is apparently assuming no mitigation attempts - which also seems totally unrealistic.

Looking further:

http://users.tpg.com.au/users/tps-seti/spacegd7.html

...gives 700 deaths/year for aircraft - and 1,400 deaths/year for 2km impacts - based on assumption that one quarter of the human population would perish in such an impact.

Comment author: XiXiDu 15 August 2010 02:45:29PM 0 points [-]

Yet, does the SIAI provide evidence on par with the paper I linked to?

Comment author: timtyler 15 August 2010 02:49:47PM *  2 points [-]

What - about the chances of superintelligence causing THE END OF THE WORLD?!?

Of course not! How could they be expected to do that?