Right, it's just (in my and most other AI researchers'[*] opinion) overwhelmingly likely that we are in fact nowhere near (the capability of) it. Although it's interesting to me that I don't feel there's that much difference in probability of "(good enough to) run away improving itself quickly past human level AI" in the next year, and in the next 10 years - both extremely close to 0 is the most specific I can be at this point. That suggests I haven't really quantified my beliefs exactly yet.

[*] I actually only work on natural language processing using really dumb machine learning, i.e. not general AI.