Seconded, tentatively. I'm afraid that all arguments of this form (for x-risk reduction, Pascal's Wager, etc.) can't avoid being rejected out of hand by most people, due to their insatiability: buying even a little bit into such an argument seems to compel a person to spend arbitrary amounts of resources on the improbable thing, and open them to harsh criticism for holding back even a little. That said, a few sincere consequentialists actually will react positively to such arguments, so maybe making them on LW is worthwhile on balance.