Morendil comments on Rationality Power Tools - Less Wrong
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Comments (65)
I would be willing to follow a PB blog if it drew attention to things that are "good" to make predictions about, with testimonials from users. Don't just encourage people to make predictions, write about why that's a useful thing to do and the nuts and bolts of it.
I've been making private predictions about important work-related events, because I'd like to become better calibrated in this domain. At the moment, I suck at it.
Hm. I would like to be able to write about useful things to do with PB, but Matthew tells me I'm 1 of 4 (or less) regular users, so there aren't many people to write such posts.
Further, my main goals with PB is to become more calibrated in general - which is almost impossible to give good examples for by its very generality - and as a record of my predictions and politics for the future which I can examine to see how I got wrong (entirely aside from how much I was over/underconfidence) which I also can't give any good examples for within the next few years/decades.
So I don't really know what I could do with your suggestions. (I do have a little project involving >100 anime-related predictions, but I don't know how well that will work out.)