JGWeissman comments on Is Rationality Maximization of Expected Value? - Less Wrong

-23 Post author: AnlamK 22 September 2010 11:16PM

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Comment author: JGWeissman 22 September 2010 11:37:37PM 14 points [-]

Maximize expected utility, not expected money.

Your intuitions in the examples that maximizing expected money is wrong is because you do not value money linearly on that scale.

Comment author: AnlamK 28 September 2010 05:49:37AM 0 points [-]

What exactly does maximizing expected utility yield in these particular cases?

For one, I could be convinced not to take A (0.01 could be too risky) but I would never take B.

I feel that if maximization of expected utility involves averaging probabilities of outcomes weighted by payoffs, then it's going to suffer from similar difficulties.

Comment author: Meni_Rosenfeld 28 September 2010 12:42:20PM *  0 points [-]

What exactly does maximizing expected utility yield in these particular cases?

For one, I could be convinced not to take A (0.01 could be too risky) but I would never take B.

Depends on how much money you currently have. According to the simple logarithmic model, you should take gamble B if your net worth is at least $2.8M.