Eugine_Nier comments on Vote Qualifications, Not Issues - Less Wrong
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It's very hard to judge the character/intelligence/etc. in someone you know very well, it's impossible in people who you only know from TV interviews. If you think you can do this, the most likely explanation is that you're suffering from overconfidence bias.
Yes, you can attempt to use proxies like standardized tests, but
When I first read "Goodhart's Law" I thought "Godwin's Law," which I think might also be relevant.