Mitchell_Porter comments on Vote Qualifications, Not Issues - Less Wrong

10 Post author: jimrandomh 26 September 2010 08:26PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (185)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Mitchell_Porter 28 September 2010 10:30:20AM -1 points [-]

In fact, the list of reasons offered for war in this memo are quite "conventional".

First item: The US and Iraq were still in a formal state of war, with Iraq still under the UN economic siege and being bombed regularly. The Kurdish north of Iraq had been a no-fly zone for Iraqi aircraft for years. If the Iraqi Army had moved north, even before 9/11, it would have been the occasion for war or serious combat.

Second item: Of course, if Iraq had been found assisting 9/11 or the anthrax letters, that would have provided a reason for war.

Third item: There were no UN weapons inspectors in Iraq as of 2001. They were all withdrawn in 1998, prior to "Operation Desert Fox", in which many supposed weapons sites were bombed, possibly in conjunction with a failed coup attempt. (The American legal basis for instigating regime change in Iraq, the Iraq Liberation Act, was created just a few months before.) A post-9/11 dispute over WMD inspections would have been, first of all, a dispute about getting inspectors back into Iraq.

Having said a few sane and verifiable things, now I want to add a big-picture comment that may sound, and may even be, rather more dubious.

I spent a long time, back in the day, trying to figure out what was actually going on with respect to Iraq. The model I ended up with was a sort of forbidden hybrid of left- and right-wing conspiracy theory, according to which Iraq was involved in al Qaeda's attacks on America and perhaps also the anthrax letters (that's the "right-wing" part), and that this was known or suspected by the US executive branch ever since the first attempt to destroy the World Trade Centre (February 1993), but that they actively hid this from the American public (that's the "left-wing" part).

In a further extension of the hypothesis or outlook, this was not a unique situation. For example, the terrorist wing of Aum Shinrikyo (which released nerve gas in the Tokyo subway in 1995) was full of North Korean agents. But there was nothing to be done openly because North Korea has the bomb. In the case of Iraq, though, the covert attack-and-counterattack did escalate to the point of war.

There are actually many reasons why a government would want to obfuscate about enemy sponsorship of a terrorist attack. First, it may be unable to do anything in retaliation, at least not immediately. Second, it may not want to do anything. Third, it may want to retain strategic flexibility - responding, or not responding - responding "at a time and place of our choosing". And fourth, once you've lied about previous attacks, you can't turn around and say, sorry, we were hiding the terrible truth from you.

The 1988 Lockerbie bombing may provide another example. The evidence was leading towards Syria as the sponsor, then Iraq invaded Kuwait, and it was deemed useful to have Syria in the coalition. So the CIA found a microchip in the Scottish moors which led to Libya instead.

However, I'm not suggesting that Iraq was a convenient substitute for the true sponsor of 9/11. These episodes or secret wars will all be different in their specifics. The important idea is that governments will manage public perception of these matters according to strategic and other imperatives, such as buying time for a counterattack, or retaining the chance for a future deal.

Comment author: dripgrind 28 September 2010 12:10:18PM 4 points [-]

My point wasn't that the reasons aren't "conventional" - it's the fact that he's making a list of things that hadn't happened yet as possible ways to start a war which shows that he was already committed to the invasion no matter what happened.

In fact, none of those things really came to pass (although the Bush administration tried to create the impression that there was a link to 9-11 or anthrax) and yet the invasion still went ahead.

Your conspiracy theory doesn't make a lot of sense. If the US government wanted to hide Iraq's supposed involvement in 9-11 and anthrax letters, then why did it repeatedly claim that Iraq was colluding with Al Qaeda between 2001 and the invasion?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saddam_Hussein_and_al-Qaeda_link_allegations

None of your reasons for obfuscating make sense, given that the US wanted to invade Iraq anyway, and did so as soon as possible.

Also, even if Aum was full of "North Korean agents" (evidence?), how do you square the idea that "there was nothing to be done openly because North Korea has the bomb" with the fact that the subway attack was in 1995 and North Korea didn't have the bomb until 2006?

Don't tell me, North Korea has secretly had the bomb since 1973, right?