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gwern comments on Open Thread September, Part 3 - Less Wrong
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I'd like to remind everyone that I have continued to work on predictionbook.com, and now it's up to ~1800 predictions, and for those of you in a hurry, there are dozens/hundreds of interesting predictions coming due in the next year or 3: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/future
Remember, signing up for Intrade is hard and it's not profitable to wager on many of its long-term contracts, but PB is absolutely free!
(One thing is for sure: with ~443 predictions registered, I should eventually be pretty well-calibrated...)
EDIT: Hanson on the value of track records: http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/09/track-records.html
Also it would be nice if you had a small amount of additional explanation of how to use the interface.
Well, it strikes me as pretty intuitive to me. The only part that seems to trip people up is that a 0-49% prediction for is translated into a 100-x% prediction against.
Right, that was the main issue. I had to think for a second to figure out how to put that in.
Unless something has changed, a UI problem is that people often "judge" when they should "estimate" or "wager" or something.
That explains some judgements, but there is a line of text below the judge buttons specifically to forestall that; I'm not sure what easy solutions there are to that.
A large number of these are things where my confidence on them is much too low to bet. Almost anyone already willing to bet on them would likely have a lot more of thought and relevant data. Still, some of these look interesting enough to maybe play with.
Well, isn't that all the more reason to use PB rather than Intrade?
And your confidence may be too low. For example, looking at my own profile, I am so far significantly underconfidence, which is a problem to be fixed just like overconfidence.