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JoshuaZ comments on Open Thread September, Part 3 - Less Wrong
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A large number of these are things where my confidence on them is much too low to bet. Almost anyone already willing to bet on them would likely have a lot more of thought and relevant data. Still, some of these look interesting enough to maybe play with.
Well, isn't that all the more reason to use PB rather than Intrade?
And your confidence may be too low. For example, looking at my own profile, I am so far significantly underconfidence, which is a problem to be fixed just like overconfidence.