The September Open Thread, Part 2 has got nearly 800 posts, so let's have a little breathing room.
This thread is for the discussion of Less Wrong topics that have not appeared in recent posts. If a discussion gets unwieldy, celebrate by turning it into a top-level post.
Well, isn't that all the more reason to use PB rather than Intrade?
And your confidence may be too low. For example, looking at my own profile, I am so far significantly underconfidence, which is a problem to be fixed just like overconfidence.