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Hariant comments on Swords and Armor: A Game Theory Thought Experiment - Less Wrong
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Interesting. Three main observations:
1] blue/green has been a popular good choice, but in this bracket, not so much. I wonder how much sway this should have on all of our guesses.
2] the blue/blue combination that I figured works well tied for third, ironically with green/green and even more ironically, below green/blue.
3] green/yellow comes out on top, probably because no one else in this simulation is running yellow armor. I wonder if this changes when we add in blue/yellow, likely in place of blue/red.
Biggest question: Say we could make a simulation where we start with say, 10 characters, of each of these combinations, set them to wander about, and then when they beat someone, the person beaten adopts the winner's combination. I wonder if that would help our understanding of this game, or if it wouldn't work due to a quick, short-term dominance by one combination.
If they were beaten, they adopt a combination that would have beaten the opponent. The psychology of game-players in PVP games suggests that they would much prefer to use a different set of equipment rather than copy a set of equipment someone used against them.
To give the simulation an equilibrium, perhaps they have a small chance to adopt the winner's combination and otherwise adopt a combination that would have won.
Goodness, thank you! I had that correct in my first comment on this whole post, as I played an MMO called Guild Wars avidly for a while. I apparently forgot that here. It does make the simulation somewhat more challenging to model.