[...] SIAI's Scary Idea goes way beyond the mere statement that there are risks as well as benefits associated with advanced AGI, and that AGI is a potential existential risk.
[...] Although an intense interest in rationalism is one of the hallmarks of the SIAI community, still I have not yet seen a clear logical argument for the Scary Idea laid out anywhere. (If I'm wrong, please send me the link, and I'll revise this post accordingly. Be aware that I've already at least skimmed everything Eliezer Yudkowsky has written on related topics.)
So if one wants a clear argument for the Scary Idea, one basically has to construct it oneself.
[...] If you put the above points all together, you come up with a heuristic argument for the Scary Idea. Roughly, the argument goes something like: If someone builds an advanced AGI without a provably Friendly architecture, probably it will have a hard takeoff, and then probably this will lead to a superhuman AGI system with an architecture drawn from the vast majority of mind-architectures that are not sufficiently harmonious with the complex, fragile human value system to make humans happy and keep humans around.
The line of argument makes sense, if you accept the premises.
But, I don't.
Ben Goertzel: The Singularity Institute's Scary Idea (and Why I Don't Buy It), October 29 2010. Thanks to XiXiDu for the pointer.
Ben Goertzel also says "If one fully accepts SIAI's Scary Idea, then one should not work on practical AGI projects..." Here is another recent quote that is relevant:
Also reminds me of this:
I've highlighted the same idea before by the way:
The Al Gore hypocrisy claim is misleading. Global warming changes the equilibrium sea level, but it takes many centuries to reach that equilibrium (glaciers can't melt instantly, etc). So climate change activists like to say that there will be sea level rises of hundreds of feet given certain emissions pathways, but neglect to mention that this won't happen in the 21st century. So there's no contradiction between buying oceanfront property only slightly above sea level and claiming that there will be large eventual sea level increases from global warming.
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