Is anyone in SIAI making the argument that we should spend more because our models are too uncertain to provide expected costs, or more generally that our very uncertainty of model is a significant source of concern? My impression was more that it's "we have good reasons to doubt people's estimation that Friendliness is easy" and "we have good reason to believe it's actually quite hard."
But if provable friendliness is hard, wouldn't it be much easier to accomplish with the help of AI? Presumably if the FAI problem can be solved by a few dozen smart human researchers within a few decades, then it can be solved in a year or so by a few dozen not-guaranteed-friendly AGIs-in-a-box with limited IQs in the 180-220 range. The AGIs design an FAI architecture and provide the proof, some smart humans check the proof, and then we build the thing and fasten our seatbelts for the exciting ride as the FAI goes FOOM.
[...] SIAI's Scary Idea goes way beyond the mere statement that there are risks as well as benefits associated with advanced AGI, and that AGI is a potential existential risk.
[...] Although an intense interest in rationalism is one of the hallmarks of the SIAI community, still I have not yet seen a clear logical argument for the Scary Idea laid out anywhere. (If I'm wrong, please send me the link, and I'll revise this post accordingly. Be aware that I've already at least skimmed everything Eliezer Yudkowsky has written on related topics.)
So if one wants a clear argument for the Scary Idea, one basically has to construct it oneself.
[...] If you put the above points all together, you come up with a heuristic argument for the Scary Idea. Roughly, the argument goes something like: If someone builds an advanced AGI without a provably Friendly architecture, probably it will have a hard takeoff, and then probably this will lead to a superhuman AGI system with an architecture drawn from the vast majority of mind-architectures that are not sufficiently harmonious with the complex, fragile human value system to make humans happy and keep humans around.
The line of argument makes sense, if you accept the premises.
But, I don't.
Ben Goertzel: The Singularity Institute's Scary Idea (and Why I Don't Buy It), October 29 2010. Thanks to XiXiDu for the pointer.