Vladimir_Nesov comments on Ben Goertzel: The Singularity Institute's Scary Idea (and Why I Don't Buy It) - Less Wrong
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You point out a correct statement (2) for which the incorrect argument (1) apparently argues. This doesn't argue for correctness of the argument (1).
(A course of action that is known to have a chance of being good is already known to be good, in proportion to that chance (unless it's also known to have a sufficient chance of being sufficiently bad). For AI to be Friendly doesn't require absolute certainty in its goodness, but beware the fallacy of gray.)