If the "default case" is that your next operating system upgrade will crash your computer or loop forever...
It would certainly be the default case for untested operating system upgrades. Whenever I write a program, even a small program, it usually doesn't work the first time I run it; there's some mistake I made and have to go back and fix. I would never ship software that I hadn't at least ran on my own to make sure it does what it's supposed to.
The problem with that when it comes to AI research, according to singulitarians, is that there's no safe way to do a test run of potentially-FOOMing software; mistakes that could lead to unFriendliness have to be found in some way that doesn't involve running the code, even in a test environment.
That just sounds crazy to me :-( Are these people actual programmers? How did they miss out on having the importance of unit tests drilled into them?
[...] SIAI's Scary Idea goes way beyond the mere statement that there are risks as well as benefits associated with advanced AGI, and that AGI is a potential existential risk.
[...] Although an intense interest in rationalism is one of the hallmarks of the SIAI community, still I have not yet seen a clear logical argument for the Scary Idea laid out anywhere. (If I'm wrong, please send me the link, and I'll revise this post accordingly. Be aware that I've already at least skimmed everything Eliezer Yudkowsky has written on related topics.)
So if one wants a clear argument for the Scary Idea, one basically has to construct it oneself.
[...] If you put the above points all together, you come up with a heuristic argument for the Scary Idea. Roughly, the argument goes something like: If someone builds an advanced AGI without a provably Friendly architecture, probably it will have a hard takeoff, and then probably this will lead to a superhuman AGI system with an architecture drawn from the vast majority of mind-architectures that are not sufficiently harmonious with the complex, fragile human value system to make humans happy and keep humans around.
The line of argument makes sense, if you accept the premises.
But, I don't.
Ben Goertzel: The Singularity Institute's Scary Idea (and Why I Don't Buy It), October 29 2010. Thanks to XiXiDu for the pointer.