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DSimon comments on Ben Goertzel: The Singularity Institute's Scary Idea (and Why I Don't Buy It) - Less Wrong
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I have no idea how to limit the IQ of AIs that other people produce without my knowledge. For AI's that I produce myself, I would simply do without closed-loop recursive self-improvement (aka, keep the AI in a box) until I have a proven FAI architecture in hand.
I'm reasonably confident that a closed-loop FOOM is impossible until AI "IQ" goes well past the max human level. I am also reasonably confident that closing the recursive self-improvement loop doesn't speed things up much until you reach that level, either.
So, if a "Sane AI" project like this one, operating under the slogan of "Open loop until we have a proof" can maintain a technological lead of a year or so over a "Risky AI" project with the slogan "Close the loop - Full speed ahead", then I'm pretty sure it is actually safer than a "Secure FAI" project operating under the slogan "No AGI until we have a proof". Because it has a better chance of establishing and maintaining that technological lead.
Hm, so then the issue just becomes how to keep the AI from closing its own loop (i.e. modifying itself in-memory through some security hole it finds). I agree that it seems unlikely to figure out how to do so at a relatively low level of intelligence.
On the other hand, it seems like it would be pretty hard to do research on self-improvement without a closed loop; isn't the expectation usually that the self-improvement process won't start doing anything particularly interesting until many iterations have passed?
Maybe I'm just misunderstanding your use of the terms. I take it by "open loop" you mean that the AI would seek to generate an improved version of itself, but would simply provide that code back to the researcher rather than running it itself?
Roughly, yes. But I see recursive self-improvement as having a hardware component as well, so "closed loop" also includes giving the AI control over electronics factories and electronic assembly robots.
Odd. My expectation for the software-only and architecture-change portion of the self-improvement is that the curve would be the exact opposite - some big gains early by picking off low-hanging fruit, but slower improvement thereafter. It is only in the exponential growth of incorporated hardware that you would get a curve like that which you seem to expect.
Or letting them seize control of ...
Not necessarily that hard given the existence of stuxnet.