So: it seems as though the "default case" of a software company shipping an application would be that it crashes, or goes into an infinite loop - since that's what happens unless steps are specifically taken to avoid it.
The default case for a lot of shipped application isn't to do what it was designed to do, i.e. satisfy the target customer's needs. Even when you ignore the bugs, often the target customer doesn't understand how it works, or it's missing a few key features, or it's interface is clunky, or no-one actually needs it, or it's made confusing with too many features nobody cares about, etc. - a lot of applications (and websites) suck, or at least, the first released version does.
We don't always see that extent because the set of software we use is heavily biased towards the "actually usable" subset, for obvious reasons.
For example, see the debate tools that have been discussed here and are never used by anybody for real debate.
[...] SIAI's Scary Idea goes way beyond the mere statement that there are risks as well as benefits associated with advanced AGI, and that AGI is a potential existential risk.
[...] Although an intense interest in rationalism is one of the hallmarks of the SIAI community, still I have not yet seen a clear logical argument for the Scary Idea laid out anywhere. (If I'm wrong, please send me the link, and I'll revise this post accordingly. Be aware that I've already at least skimmed everything Eliezer Yudkowsky has written on related topics.)
So if one wants a clear argument for the Scary Idea, one basically has to construct it oneself.
[...] If you put the above points all together, you come up with a heuristic argument for the Scary Idea. Roughly, the argument goes something like: If someone builds an advanced AGI without a provably Friendly architecture, probably it will have a hard takeoff, and then probably this will lead to a superhuman AGI system with an architecture drawn from the vast majority of mind-architectures that are not sufficiently harmonious with the complex, fragile human value system to make humans happy and keep humans around.
The line of argument makes sense, if you accept the premises.
But, I don't.
Ben Goertzel: The Singularity Institute's Scary Idea (and Why I Don't Buy It), October 29 2010. Thanks to XiXiDu for the pointer.