Agreed, and I'd put it at at least 50-50 that it's outright wrong.
(My understanding is that they've had lots of trouble doing studies on this, partly because it's hard to get lower-functioning autistics to focus on the things that the testers want them to pay attention to, so many of the older tests gave results that were, on further examination, incorrect. The most recent results I've heard about say that autistic people are at least as empathetic as neurotypicals, on average; the social problems have more to do with difficulty using information gained via empathy than with the empathy not being there at all. I actually wouldn't be at all surprised if it was an integration issue similar to the sensory integration issues that are so common.)
[...] SIAI's Scary Idea goes way beyond the mere statement that there are risks as well as benefits associated with advanced AGI, and that AGI is a potential existential risk.
[...] Although an intense interest in rationalism is one of the hallmarks of the SIAI community, still I have not yet seen a clear logical argument for the Scary Idea laid out anywhere. (If I'm wrong, please send me the link, and I'll revise this post accordingly. Be aware that I've already at least skimmed everything Eliezer Yudkowsky has written on related topics.)
So if one wants a clear argument for the Scary Idea, one basically has to construct it oneself.
[...] If you put the above points all together, you come up with a heuristic argument for the Scary Idea. Roughly, the argument goes something like: If someone builds an advanced AGI without a provably Friendly architecture, probably it will have a hard takeoff, and then probably this will lead to a superhuman AGI system with an architecture drawn from the vast majority of mind-architectures that are not sufficiently harmonious with the complex, fragile human value system to make humans happy and keep humans around.
The line of argument makes sense, if you accept the premises.
But, I don't.
Ben Goertzel: The Singularity Institute's Scary Idea (and Why I Don't Buy It), October 29 2010. Thanks to XiXiDu for the pointer.