The "default case" occurs when not specifically avoided.
The company making the OS upgrade is going to do their best to avoid the computers it's installed on crashing. In fact, they'll probably hire quality control experts to make certain of it.
Why should AGI not have quality control?
It definitely should have quality control.
The whole point of the 'Scary idea' is that there should be an effective quality control for GAI, otherwise the risks are too big.
At the moment humanity has no idea on how to make an effective quality control - which would be some way to check if an arbitrary AI-in-a-box is Friendly.
Ergo, if a GAI is launched before Friendly AI problem has some solutions, it means that GAI was launched without a quality control performed. Scary. At least to me.
[...] SIAI's Scary Idea goes way beyond the mere statement that there are risks as well as benefits associated with advanced AGI, and that AGI is a potential existential risk.
[...] Although an intense interest in rationalism is one of the hallmarks of the SIAI community, still I have not yet seen a clear logical argument for the Scary Idea laid out anywhere. (If I'm wrong, please send me the link, and I'll revise this post accordingly. Be aware that I've already at least skimmed everything Eliezer Yudkowsky has written on related topics.)
So if one wants a clear argument for the Scary Idea, one basically has to construct it oneself.
[...] If you put the above points all together, you come up with a heuristic argument for the Scary Idea. Roughly, the argument goes something like: If someone builds an advanced AGI without a provably Friendly architecture, probably it will have a hard takeoff, and then probably this will lead to a superhuman AGI system with an architecture drawn from the vast majority of mind-architectures that are not sufficiently harmonious with the complex, fragile human value system to make humans happy and keep humans around.
The line of argument makes sense, if you accept the premises.
But, I don't.
Ben Goertzel: The Singularity Institute's Scary Idea (and Why I Don't Buy It), October 29 2010. Thanks to XiXiDu for the pointer.