Doesn't that assume what it is trying to prove - by starting out with:
"The main reason to be worried about greater-than-human intelligence is because it is hard for humans to anticipate and control."
...? From the perspective of technological determinism, "controlling" the machines should probably not be our aim. Our more plausible options are more along the lines of joining with them - or being interesting enough to keep around in their historical simulations.
To me it rather looks like that the paper in question is trying to give a summary of conclusions that follow from the premise that greater-than-human intelligence is possible. I'm not reluctant to any of the mentioned possibilities but I'm wary of using inferences derived from reasonable but unproven hypothesis as foundations for further speculative thinking. Although the paper does a good job on stating reasons to justify the existence and support for an organisation such as the SIAI, it does not substantiate the initial premise to an extent that one coul...
[...] SIAI's Scary Idea goes way beyond the mere statement that there are risks as well as benefits associated with advanced AGI, and that AGI is a potential existential risk.
[...] Although an intense interest in rationalism is one of the hallmarks of the SIAI community, still I have not yet seen a clear logical argument for the Scary Idea laid out anywhere. (If I'm wrong, please send me the link, and I'll revise this post accordingly. Be aware that I've already at least skimmed everything Eliezer Yudkowsky has written on related topics.)
So if one wants a clear argument for the Scary Idea, one basically has to construct it oneself.
[...] If you put the above points all together, you come up with a heuristic argument for the Scary Idea. Roughly, the argument goes something like: If someone builds an advanced AGI without a provably Friendly architecture, probably it will have a hard takeoff, and then probably this will lead to a superhuman AGI system with an architecture drawn from the vast majority of mind-architectures that are not sufficiently harmonious with the complex, fragile human value system to make humans happy and keep humans around.
The line of argument makes sense, if you accept the premises.
But, I don't.
Ben Goertzel: The Singularity Institute's Scary Idea (and Why I Don't Buy It), October 29 2010. Thanks to XiXiDu for the pointer.