Goertzel: I could and will list the errors I see in his arguments (if nobody there has done so first). For now I'll just say his response to claim #2 seems to conflate humans and AIs. But unless I've missed something big, which certainly seems possible, he didn't make his decision based on those arguments. They don't seem good enough on their face to convince anyone. For example, I don't think he could really believe that he and other researchers would unconsciously restrict the AI's movement in the space of possible minds to the safe area(s), but if we reject that possibility some version of #4 seems to follow logically from 1 and 2.
Egan: don't know. What I've seen looks unimpressive, though certainly he has reason to doubt 'transhumanist' predictions for the near future. (SIAI instead seems to assume that if humans can produce AGI, then either we'll do so eventually or we'll die out first. Also, that we could produce artificial X-maximizing intelligence more easily then we can produce artificial nearly-any-other-human-trait, which seems likely based on the tool I use to write this and the history of said tool.) Do you have a particular statement or implied statement of his in mind?
Hanson: maybe I shouldn't point any of this out, but EY started by pursuing a Heinlein Hero quest to save the world through his own rationality. He then found himself compelled to reinvent democracy and regulation (albeit in a form closely tailored to the case at hand and without any strict logical implications for normal politics). His conservative/libertarian economist friend called these new views wrongheaded despite verbally agreeing with him that EY should act on those views. Said friend also posted a short essay about "heritage" that allowed him to paint those who disagreed with his particular libertarian vision as egg-headed elitists.
From where you got those quotes? References?
[...] SIAI's Scary Idea goes way beyond the mere statement that there are risks as well as benefits associated with advanced AGI, and that AGI is a potential existential risk.
[...] Although an intense interest in rationalism is one of the hallmarks of the SIAI community, still I have not yet seen a clear logical argument for the Scary Idea laid out anywhere. (If I'm wrong, please send me the link, and I'll revise this post accordingly. Be aware that I've already at least skimmed everything Eliezer Yudkowsky has written on related topics.)
So if one wants a clear argument for the Scary Idea, one basically has to construct it oneself.
[...] If you put the above points all together, you come up with a heuristic argument for the Scary Idea. Roughly, the argument goes something like: If someone builds an advanced AGI without a provably Friendly architecture, probably it will have a hard takeoff, and then probably this will lead to a superhuman AGI system with an architecture drawn from the vast majority of mind-architectures that are not sufficiently harmonious with the complex, fragile human value system to make humans happy and keep humans around.
The line of argument makes sense, if you accept the premises.
But, I don't.
Ben Goertzel: The Singularity Institute's Scary Idea (and Why I Don't Buy It), October 29 2010. Thanks to XiXiDu for the pointer.