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JGWeissman comments on Ben Goertzel: The Singularity Institute's Scary Idea (and Why I Don't Buy It) - Less Wrong
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Consider what the actual flaw is in the original Pascal's wager. (Hint: it is not that it uses expected utility, but that it is calculating the expected utility wrong, somehow.) Then consider if that same flaw occurs in Shocwave's argument.
It seems to me that the same flaw (calculating expected utility wrong) is present. It only considers the small finite costs of delaying development, not the large finite ones. You don't have to just worry about killing grandma, you have to worry about whether or not your delay will actually decrease the chance of an unfriendly AGI.