The problem with Pascal's Wager isn't that it's a Wager. The problem with Pascal's Wager and Pascal's Mugging (its analogue in finite expected utility maximization), as near as I can tell, is that if you do an expected utility calculation including one outcome that has a tiny probability but enough utility or disutility to weigh heavily in the calculation anyway, you need to include every possible outcome that is around that level of improbability, or you are privileging a hypothesis and are probably making the calculation less accurate in the process. If you actually are including every other hypothesis at that level of improbability, for instance if you are a galaxy-sized Bayesian superintelligence who, for reasons beyond my mortal mind's comprehension, has decided not to just dismiss those tiny possibilities a priori anyway, then it still shouldn't be any problem; at that point, you should get a sane, nearly-optimal answer.
So, is this situation a Pascal's Mugging? I don't think it is. 1% isn't at the same level of ridiculous improbability as, say, Yahweh existing, or the mugger's threat being true. 1% chances actually happen pretty often, so it's both possible and prudent to take them into account when a lot is at stake. The only extra thing to consider is that the remaining 99% should be broken down into smaller possibilities; saying "1% humanity ends, 99% everything goes fine" is unjustified. There are probably some other possible outcomes that are also around 1%, and perhaps a bit lower, and they should be taken into account individually.
Excellent analysis. In fairness to Pascal, I think his available evidence at the time should have lead him to attribute more than a 1% chance to the Christian Bible being true.
[...] SIAI's Scary Idea goes way beyond the mere statement that there are risks as well as benefits associated with advanced AGI, and that AGI is a potential existential risk.
[...] Although an intense interest in rationalism is one of the hallmarks of the SIAI community, still I have not yet seen a clear logical argument for the Scary Idea laid out anywhere. (If I'm wrong, please send me the link, and I'll revise this post accordingly. Be aware that I've already at least skimmed everything Eliezer Yudkowsky has written on related topics.)
So if one wants a clear argument for the Scary Idea, one basically has to construct it oneself.
[...] If you put the above points all together, you come up with a heuristic argument for the Scary Idea. Roughly, the argument goes something like: If someone builds an advanced AGI without a provably Friendly architecture, probably it will have a hard takeoff, and then probably this will lead to a superhuman AGI system with an architecture drawn from the vast majority of mind-architectures that are not sufficiently harmonious with the complex, fragile human value system to make humans happy and keep humans around.
The line of argument makes sense, if you accept the premises.
But, I don't.
Ben Goertzel: The Singularity Institute's Scary Idea (and Why I Don't Buy It), October 29 2010. Thanks to XiXiDu for the pointer.