I tend to think differently on this one.
Wherever I turn my head around in this world, I see lost causes everywhere. I see Goodhart's law and Campbell's law at loose everywhere. I see insane optimizers everywhere. Political parties that concentrate more on show, pomp and campaign funds than on actual issues. Corporates that seek money to the exclusion of actual creation of value. Governments that seek employment and GDP growth even when those are supported by artificial stimuli and not sustainable patterns of production and trade.
One might argue that none of these systems are actually as intelligent as a well educated human at any given moment in time. But that's the point, isn't it? You're unable to stop sub-human optimizers, how are you going to curb a near human or a super human one?
For me, the scary idea is not so much of an idea as it is an extension of something that is already happening in this world.
[...] SIAI's Scary Idea goes way beyond the mere statement that there are risks as well as benefits associated with advanced AGI, and that AGI is a potential existential risk.
[...] Although an intense interest in rationalism is one of the hallmarks of the SIAI community, still I have not yet seen a clear logical argument for the Scary Idea laid out anywhere. (If I'm wrong, please send me the link, and I'll revise this post accordingly. Be aware that I've already at least skimmed everything Eliezer Yudkowsky has written on related topics.)
So if one wants a clear argument for the Scary Idea, one basically has to construct it oneself.
[...] If you put the above points all together, you come up with a heuristic argument for the Scary Idea. Roughly, the argument goes something like: If someone builds an advanced AGI without a provably Friendly architecture, probably it will have a hard takeoff, and then probably this will lead to a superhuman AGI system with an architecture drawn from the vast majority of mind-architectures that are not sufficiently harmonious with the complex, fragile human value system to make humans happy and keep humans around.
The line of argument makes sense, if you accept the premises.
But, I don't.
Ben Goertzel: The Singularity Institute's Scary Idea (and Why I Don't Buy It), October 29 2010. Thanks to XiXiDu for the pointer.