Well, the worst case scenario is that you die in childbirth and take the entire human race with you. That is not something I am comfortable with, regardless of whether you are. And you said you are willing to kill to protect your children. You think some of the Scary Idea proponents could be parents with children, and they don't want to see their kids die because you gave birth to an AI?
I suspect we are at most one more iteration from mutual understanding; we certainly are rapidly approaching it.
If you believe that an AGI will FOOM, then all that matters is the first AGI made. There is no prize for second place. A belief in the Scary Idea has two effects: it makes your AGI more likely to be friendly (since you're more careful!) and it makes the AGI less likely to be your AGI (since you're more careful).
Now, one can hope that the Scary Idea meme's second effect won't matter, because the meme is so infectious- all you need to do is infect every AI researcher in the world, and now everyone will be more careful and no one will have a carefulness speed disadvantage. But there are two bits of evidence that make that a poor strategy: AI researchers who are familiar with the argument and don't buy it, and people who buy the argument, but plan to use it to your disadvantage (since now they're more likely to define the future than you are!).
The scary idea as a technical argument is weighted on unknown and unpredictable values, and the underlying moral argument (to convince someone they should adopt this reasoning) requires that they believe they should weight the satisfaction of other humans more than their ability to define the future, which is a hard sell.
Thus, my statement is, if you care about your children / your ability to define the future / maximizing the likelihood of a friendly AGI / your personal well-being, then believing in the Scary Idea seems counterproductive.
Ok, holy crap. I am going to call this the Really Scary Idea. I had not thought there could be people out there who would actually value being first with the AGI over decreasing the risk of existential disaster, but it is entirely plausible. Thank you for highlighting this for me, I really am grateful. If a little concerned.
Mind projection fallacy, perhaps? I thought the human race was more important than being the guy who invented AGI, so everyone naturally thinks that?
To reply to my own quote, then:
...Well, the worst case scenario is that you die in chil
[...] SIAI's Scary Idea goes way beyond the mere statement that there are risks as well as benefits associated with advanced AGI, and that AGI is a potential existential risk.
[...] Although an intense interest in rationalism is one of the hallmarks of the SIAI community, still I have not yet seen a clear logical argument for the Scary Idea laid out anywhere. (If I'm wrong, please send me the link, and I'll revise this post accordingly. Be aware that I've already at least skimmed everything Eliezer Yudkowsky has written on related topics.)
So if one wants a clear argument for the Scary Idea, one basically has to construct it oneself.
[...] If you put the above points all together, you come up with a heuristic argument for the Scary Idea. Roughly, the argument goes something like: If someone builds an advanced AGI without a provably Friendly architecture, probably it will have a hard takeoff, and then probably this will lead to a superhuman AGI system with an architecture drawn from the vast majority of mind-architectures that are not sufficiently harmonious with the complex, fragile human value system to make humans happy and keep humans around.
The line of argument makes sense, if you accept the premises.
But, I don't.
Ben Goertzel: The Singularity Institute's Scary Idea (and Why I Don't Buy It), October 29 2010. Thanks to XiXiDu for the pointer.