[...] SIAI's Scary Idea goes way beyond the mere statement that there are risks as well as benefits associated with advanced AGI, and that AGI is a potential existential risk.
[...] Although an intense interest in rationalism is one of the hallmarks of the SIAI community, still I have not yet seen a clear logical argument for the Scary Idea laid out anywhere. (If I'm wrong, please send me the link, and I'll revise this post accordingly. Be aware that I've already at least skimmed everything Eliezer Yudkowsky has written on related topics.)
So if one wants a clear argument for the Scary Idea, one basically has to construct it oneself.
[...] If you put the above points all together, you come up with a heuristic argument for the Scary Idea. Roughly, the argument goes something like: If someone builds an advanced AGI without a provably Friendly architecture, probably it will have a hard takeoff, and then probably this will lead to a superhuman AGI system with an architecture drawn from the vast majority of mind-architectures that are not sufficiently harmonious with the complex, fragile human value system to make humans happy and keep humans around.
The line of argument makes sense, if you accept the premises.
But, I don't.
Ben Goertzel: The Singularity Institute's Scary Idea (and Why I Don't Buy It), October 29 2010. Thanks to XiXiDu for the pointer.
I favor many AIs rather than one big one, mostly for political (balance of power) reasons, but also because:
The idea of maximizing the "utility of the universe" is the kind of idiocy that utilitarian ethics induces. I much prefer the more modest goal "maximize the total utility of those agents currently in your coalition, and adjust that composite utility function as new agents join your coalition and old agents leave."
Clearly, creating new agents can be good, but the tradeoff is that it dilutes the stake of existing agents in the collective will. I think that a lot of people here forget that economic growth requires the accumulation of capital, and that the only way to accumulate capital is to shortchange current consumption. Having a brilliant AI or lots of smart AIs directing the economy cannot change this fact. So, moderate growth is a better way to go.
Trying to arrive at the future quickly runs too much risk of destroying the future. Maybe that is one good thing about cryonics. It decreases the natural urge to rush things because people are afraid they will die too soon to see the future.
You perhaps envisage a Monopolies and Mergers Commission - to prevent them from joining forces? As the old joke goes:
"Why is there only one Monopolies and Mergers Commission?"