This post doesn't show up under "NEW", nor does it show up under "Recent Posts".
ADDED: Never mind. I forgot I had "disliked" it, and had "do not show an article once I've disliked it" set.
(I disliked it because I find it kind of shocking that Ben, who's very smart, and whom I'm pretty sure has read the things that I would refer him to on the subject, would say that the Scary Idea hasn't been laid out sufficiently. Maybe some people need every detail spelled out for them, but Ben isn't one of them. Also, he is committing the elementary error of not considering expected value.
ADDED: Now that I've read Ben's entire post, I upvoted rather than downvoted this post. Ben was not committing the error of not considering expected value, so much as responding to many SIAI-influenced people who are not considering expected value. And I agree with most of what Ben says. I would add that Eliezer's plan to construct something that will provably follow some course of action - any course of action - chosen by hairless primates, is likely to be worse in the long run than a hard-takeoff AI that kills all humans almost immediately. Explaining what I mean by "worse" is problematic; but no more problematic than explaining why I should care about propagating human values.)
I also disagree about what the Scary Idea is - to me, the idea that the AI will choose to keep humans around for all eternity, is scarier than that it will not. But that is something Eliezer either disagrees with, or has deliberately made obscure.)
to me, the idea that the AI will choose to keep humans around for all eternity, is scarier than that it will not. But that is something Eliezer either disagrees with, or has deliberately made obscure.
Wouldn't it make sense to keep some humans around for all eternity - in the history simul-books? That seems to make sense - and not be especially scary.
[...] SIAI's Scary Idea goes way beyond the mere statement that there are risks as well as benefits associated with advanced AGI, and that AGI is a potential existential risk.
[...] Although an intense interest in rationalism is one of the hallmarks of the SIAI community, still I have not yet seen a clear logical argument for the Scary Idea laid out anywhere. (If I'm wrong, please send me the link, and I'll revise this post accordingly. Be aware that I've already at least skimmed everything Eliezer Yudkowsky has written on related topics.)
So if one wants a clear argument for the Scary Idea, one basically has to construct it oneself.
[...] If you put the above points all together, you come up with a heuristic argument for the Scary Idea. Roughly, the argument goes something like: If someone builds an advanced AGI without a provably Friendly architecture, probably it will have a hard takeoff, and then probably this will lead to a superhuman AGI system with an architecture drawn from the vast majority of mind-architectures that are not sufficiently harmonious with the complex, fragile human value system to make humans happy and keep humans around.
The line of argument makes sense, if you accept the premises.
But, I don't.
Ben Goertzel: The Singularity Institute's Scary Idea (and Why I Don't Buy It), October 29 2010. Thanks to XiXiDu for the pointer.