We have the advantage of being of historical interest - and so we will probably "survive" in historical simulations. However, it is not easy to see much of a place for slug-like creatures like us in an engineered future.
Kurzweil gave the example of bacteria - saying that they managed to survive. However, there are no traces (not even bacteria) left over from before the last genetic takeover - and that makes it less likely that much will make it through this one.
There are no traces left over from before the last genetic takeover ...
Plenty of traces left from the last takeover. You apparently mean no traces left from that first, mythical takeover - the one where clay became flesh.
... and that makes it less likely that much will make it through this one.
I'm tempted to ask "Why won't there still be monkeys?". But it is probably more to the point to simply express my faith that there will be a niche for descendants of humans and traces of humans (cyborgs) in this brave new ecology.
Humans as-we-know-...
[...] SIAI's Scary Idea goes way beyond the mere statement that there are risks as well as benefits associated with advanced AGI, and that AGI is a potential existential risk.
[...] Although an intense interest in rationalism is one of the hallmarks of the SIAI community, still I have not yet seen a clear logical argument for the Scary Idea laid out anywhere. (If I'm wrong, please send me the link, and I'll revise this post accordingly. Be aware that I've already at least skimmed everything Eliezer Yudkowsky has written on related topics.)
So if one wants a clear argument for the Scary Idea, one basically has to construct it oneself.
[...] If you put the above points all together, you come up with a heuristic argument for the Scary Idea. Roughly, the argument goes something like: If someone builds an advanced AGI without a provably Friendly architecture, probably it will have a hard takeoff, and then probably this will lead to a superhuman AGI system with an architecture drawn from the vast majority of mind-architectures that are not sufficiently harmonious with the complex, fragile human value system to make humans happy and keep humans around.
The line of argument makes sense, if you accept the premises.
But, I don't.
Ben Goertzel: The Singularity Institute's Scary Idea (and Why I Don't Buy It), October 29 2010. Thanks to XiXiDu for the pointer.