So you ought to ask yourself whether it's your real and final preference that says "human preference is arbitrary, therefore it doesn't matter what becomes of the universe",
That isn't what I feel, by the way. It matters to me which way the future turns out; I am just not yet certain on what metric to compare the desirability to me of various volumes of future space. (Indeed, I am pessimistic on being able to come up with anything more than a rough sketch of such a metric.)
I mean, consider two possible futures: in the first, you have a diverse set of less advanced paperclippers (some want paperclips, others want staples, and so on). How do you compare that with a single, more technically advanced paperclipper? Is it unambiguously obvious the unified paperclipper is worse than the diverse group, and that the more advanced is worse than the less advanced?
When you realize that humanity are paperclippers designed by an idiot, it makes the question a lot more difficult to answer.
[...] SIAI's Scary Idea goes way beyond the mere statement that there are risks as well as benefits associated with advanced AGI, and that AGI is a potential existential risk.
[...] Although an intense interest in rationalism is one of the hallmarks of the SIAI community, still I have not yet seen a clear logical argument for the Scary Idea laid out anywhere. (If I'm wrong, please send me the link, and I'll revise this post accordingly. Be aware that I've already at least skimmed everything Eliezer Yudkowsky has written on related topics.)
So if one wants a clear argument for the Scary Idea, one basically has to construct it oneself.
[...] If you put the above points all together, you come up with a heuristic argument for the Scary Idea. Roughly, the argument goes something like: If someone builds an advanced AGI without a provably Friendly architecture, probably it will have a hard takeoff, and then probably this will lead to a superhuman AGI system with an architecture drawn from the vast majority of mind-architectures that are not sufficiently harmonious with the complex, fragile human value system to make humans happy and keep humans around.
The line of argument makes sense, if you accept the premises.
But, I don't.
Ben Goertzel: The Singularity Institute's Scary Idea (and Why I Don't Buy It), October 29 2010. Thanks to XiXiDu for the pointer.