gwern comments on Rationality Quotes: December 2010 - Less Wrong

6 Post author: Tiiba 03 December 2010 03:23AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (331)

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: gwern 15 December 2010 08:05:51PM *  35 points [-]

'One day when I was a junior medical student, a very important Boston surgeon visited the school and delivered a great treatise on a large number of patients who had undergone successful operations for vascular reconstruction.

At the end of the lecture, a young student at the back of the room timidly asked, “Do you have any controls?” Well, the great surgeon drew himself up to his full height, hit the desk, and said, “Do you mean did I not operate on half the patients?” The hall grew very quiet then. The voice at the back of the room very hesitantly replied, “Yes, that’s what I had in mind.” Then the visitor’s fist really came down as he thundered, “Of course not. That would have doomed half of them to their death.”

God, it was quiet then, and one could scarcely hear the small voice ask, “Which half?”'

Dr. E. E. Peacock, Jr., quoted in Medical World News (September 1, 1972), p. 45, as quoted in Tufte's 1974 book Data Analysis for Politics and Policy; http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/12/the-ethics-of-random-clinical-trials.html

Comment author: kpreid 19 August 2011 03:03:44AM 2 points [-]

I have empirically determined that this quote is excellent for reading aloud. 2/3 of the audience was moved to applause.

Comment author: gwern 19 August 2011 03:10:05AM 1 point [-]

Cool! What audience was that?

Comment author: kpreid 19 August 2011 05:00:29PM 2 points [-]

3 coworkers at lunch. I used it for comparison with the (arguable) equivalent problem with deliberate experiments on law/government/society, which was the topic of discussion.

But my conclusion above is probably mostly due to that the quote is written as a story; it even has text explicitly indicating tone of voice.

Comment author: FiftyTwo 12 September 2011 12:52:11AM 0 points [-]

I like the message behind the quote, but surely in the case given a massive natural control exists in all patients prior to the introduction of the new surgery?

Comment author: gwern 12 September 2011 12:59:58AM 0 points [-]

Patient groups and techniques change over time, assuming the data was even recorded in the first place. (eg. a lot of data from the past would not be useful today as a direct comparison or control group, simply because diets have changed so much.)