Emile comments on Reliably wrong - Less Wrong

2 Post author: NancyLebovitz 09 December 2010 02:46PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (19)

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: Emile 09 December 2010 04:43:01PM *  5 points [-]

Most interesting claims are narrow; the narrower a claim, the more likely it is to be wrong.

If you have an expert who seems systematically wrong, "opposite" predictions will be broad claims that are often right. But that's not very useful - it's easy to make a series of broad claims, most of which are right.