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komponisto comments on A Thought on Pascal's Mugging - Less Wrong
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See Sewing-Machine's comment. The smallness of the probability isn't fixed, if the probability is controlled by complexity, and complexity controls utility.
More precisely, the probability that the mugger can produce arbitrary amounts of utility is dominated by (the probability that the mugger can produce more than N units of utility), for every N; and as the latter is arbitrarily small for N sufficiently large, the former must be zero.